Archive for November, 2004

Belmont Club

Wednesday, November 24th, 2004

Belmont Club.

Can there be any doubt abut the geopolitical impact of communications technologies?

Russian special forces dressed in Ukrainian Special forces uniforms are in Kyiv. Ukrainian militia have been instructed by the mayor to protect the people from the Russian troops. Ukrainian militia have established a hotline for Ukrainians to report any incidents with the Russians and pledged to protect Ukrainians. These Russians flew into Ukraine this morning. They’re now surrounding the administration buildings they say “to protect Kuchma (the outgoing president and his PM Yanukovich). Following is a chain of email messages I’ve been sending by blackberry. Please pass along to others. Bob Schaffer.

PBS – Unfair and imbalanced "journalism" in action

Monday, November 22nd, 2004

Bruce Bartlett vividly illustrates PBS’s "agenda journalism by providing readers with facts regarding the astounding macroeconomic impact of Walmart on the US economy over the last decade. PBS, having been supplied the same facts during its "investigation" of the issue, chose to omit them entirely from its negative presentation about Walmart.

I also pointed out to Smith that Wal-Mart, all by itself, was responsible for a significant amount of the productivity miracle we have seen in this country over the last decade. In a 2001 report, the McKinsey Global Institute, a respected think tank, concluded that Wal-Mart’s managerial innovations had increased overall productivity by more than all the investments in computers and information technology of recent years. Wal-Mart’s innovations include large-scale (big-box) stores, economies of scale in warehouse logistics and purchasing, electronic data interchange, and wireless barcode scanning. These gave Wal-Mart a 48 percent productivity advantage over its competitors, forcing them to innovate as well, thus pushing up their productivity. The McKinsey study found that productivity improvements in wholesale and retail trade alone accounted over half of the increase in national productivity between 1995 and 1999. A new study from the prestigious National Bureau of Economic Research found that Wal-Mart has a substantial effect on reducing the rate of inflation. For example, it typically sells food for 15 percent to 25 percent less than competing supermarkets. Interestingly, this effect is not captured in official government data. Fully accounting for it would reduce the published inflation rate by as much as 0.42 percentage points or 15 percent per year.

Ignoring these beneficial macroeconomic effects, Frontline focused almost exclusively on the loss of jobs allegedly caused by Wal-Mart. Acting as what economists call a monopsony, it supposedly forced countless American manufacturers to close their domestic operations and move to Asia in order to get their costs low enough for Wal-Mart to sell their products. It is also said to have caused innumerable local retailers to go out of business, further adding to the job loss. In fact, academic research by economist Emek Basker of the University of Missouri contradicts this last point, finding that Wal-Mart permanently raises local employment.

Firefox (aka Netscape Arises from the Dead!)

Tuesday, November 16th, 2004

When I first tried Firefox about six months ago – out of frustration with IE’s lack of security, I was completely underwhelmed and could not understand why the developer/programmer community was so buzzed about it.  I googled for other browers and found Maxthon, which is an overlay on IE that provides lots of nifty features, the most important of which is tabbed browsing.  While that was supposed to be Firefox’s claim to fame, at that time Maxthon beat it hands down.  Recently Maxthon stopped supporting the Google toolbar, which is the most essential feature for a browser for me (hmmm…wonder if that ever occurred to Google???).  That prompted me to revisit Firefox and upon doing so, I found a much improved tabbed browser and a far wealthier palate of extensions for it.  After a couple of weeks use, I’m hooked, however, I would only recommend it for those who don’t mind the hassles (and benefits) of beta-like software.  Firefox will only get better, but it’s still a little unwieldy for those who lack the curiosity and patience to work with something that is both new and rapidly evolving.  More on Firefox and the open-source software phenomenon later.

Get Firefox!

Business Related, for a Change!

Tuesday, November 9th, 2004

Time to blog about something else besides politics.  EuroTelcoblog opines that Internet and web publishing technologies are evolving in a manner that suggests a new Web-based investment research platform will surface to replace the obviously dysfunctional and outdated one provided by the investment banks.

"the message is pretty clear to me: eventually, and probably sooner than later, someone is going to pull together all these diverse angles on telecom/internet/media/hardware/applications/chips, incorporate some hard financial and technical analysis, and build a cross-sector investment research platform incorporating realtime tools (I mean blogging, IM, video conferencing and collaboration) rather than .pdfs and spam.

There is a business model here, and whether it’s the financial media who seize upon it (Reuters and Bloomberg have the infrastructure and a lot of data, but are trapped in a walled garden mentality and put their journalists in the same sector-coverage silos that the brokers do), or the brokers (I’m skeptical, because I think they tend to be dismissive of alternative points of view, risk-averse, organized in sector and region silos, and anyway are focused on trying to kill one another), or a newcomer (CNET or something that doesn’t currently exist), I feel certain that it is going to happen."

Makes sense to me.  Furthermore, if true, it would seem to follow that almost any research-intensive business would be open to similar disruption.  Wonder if Gardener, Forrester, Yankee, et al. have thought of that?